This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy to use generic software which is able to exploit the...

This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent...

Since forecast failure is due to unanticipated large shifts in deterministic factors, sensible agents should adopt robust forecasting rules. Unless the model coincides with the generating mechanism, one cannot even prove that causal variables will dominate non-causal in forecasting. In such a...

Identification is an essential attribute of any models parameters, so we consider its three aspects of uniqueness, correspondence to reality and interpretability. Observationally-equivalent over-identified models can co-exist, and are mutually encompassing in the population; correctly-identified...

Although difference-stationary (DS) and trend-stationary (TS) processes have been subject to considerable analysis, there are no direct comparisons for each being the data-generation process (DGP). We examine incorrect choice between these models for forecasting for both known and estimated...

We consider information from many sciences bearing on the causes and consequences of climate change, focusing on lessons from past mass extinctions of life on Earth.  The increasing atmospheric levels of the main greenhouse gases are now established, as is their source in human activity. ...

David Hendry has made major contributions to many areas of economic forecasting. He has developed a taxonomy of forecast errors and a theory of unpredictability that have yielded valuable insights into the nature of forecasting. He has also provided new perspectives on many existing forecast...