Analyses of the Asian crisis have focused excessively on the financial sector, especially the banks. The role of the real sector in exposing the financial system to stress has been under-emphasized. This paper provides a real-sector explanation for the Thai crisis of 1997, demonstrating the role...

This paper examines the long-run (steady-state) relationship between levels of educational human capital and levels of income for the 15 major states of India between 1965 and 1992. The relationship is estimated using the Pooled Mean Groups (PMG) technique; which produces common long-run...

In this chapter we propose using compound Poisson processes to model trade-by-trade financial data. Our main focus will be on developing specific types of Cox processes in order to accurately depict the trading process. We study the problem of signal extracting the intensity of the trading...

This paper tests the efficiency of insurance markets in the Pakistan Punjab by examining how crop choices are affected by the presence of price and yield risk. We estimate reduced-form and structural models of crop choices. Although we cannot reject the hypothesis that village members...

This paper is concerned with the estimation of stochastic differential equations when only discrete observations are available. It primarily focuses on deriving a closed form solution for the one-step ahead conditional transition density using the Milstein scheme. This higher order Taylor...

The appropriateness of financial liberalisation in Africa - at least over the short-term - is in doubt. It has been suggested that the credit risks faced by financial institutions will be detrimental to the supply of credit. The contribution of this paper is to point out that financial...

This paper proposes a new framework for the impulse-response analysis of business cycle transitions. A cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model is found to be a congruent representation of post-war US employment and output data. In this model some parameters change according to...

The relationships between inflation and macro-economic instability are discussed analytically, using a simple monetary model with rational expectations, with an application to the case of Madagascar. The recent macroeconomic history of this country suggests that high inflation is correlated with...

Although difference-stationary (DS) and trend-stationary (TS) processes have been subject to considerable analysis, there are no direct comparisons for each being the data-generation process (DGP). We examine incorrect choice between these models for forecasting for both known and estimated...

We review two proposals for debt forgiveness; the Highly Indebted Poor Country Initiative (HIPC) and the Jubilee 2000 Coalition Initiative (J2K). We then consider the workhorse model of debt forgiveness (Krugman 1988). We show that the workhorse model solution is a sub-optimal contract, where...