ABSTRACT: Civil wars dramatically reduce income. Peace might therefore be expected to generate a dividend which both the government and the private sector can spend. Paradoxically, those civil wars which are prolonged and therefore do most damage create only small instant peace dividends. Income...

The consumption behaviour of UK, US and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando-Modigliani style consumption function.  The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral and other credit effects.  These models therefore capture...

The paper examines the contentious issue of the extent of surplus labour that remains in China.  China was an extreme example of a surplus labour economy, but the rapid economic growth during the period of economic reform requires a reassessment of whether the second stage of the Lewis model...

We consider information from many sciences bearing on the causes and consequences of climate change, focusing on lessons from past mass extinctions of life on Earth.  The increasing atmospheric levels of the main greenhouse gases are now established, as is their source in human activity. ...

This paper examines monetary policy in a currency union whose member countries exhibit heterogeneous rates of limited asset markets participation (LAMP).  As a result risk sharing among member countries is imperfect and the monetary transmission mechanism can differ across countries.  In the...

In many markets firms set posted prices which are potentially negotiable.  We analyze the optimal marketing mix of pricing and bargaining when price takers buy at posted prices but bargainers attempt to negotiate discounts.  The optimal bargaining strategy involves the firms offering...

This paper presents a simple model of risk-averse banks that face uncertainty over funding conditions in the money market.  It shows when increased funding uncertainty causes interest rates on loans and deposits to rise, while bank lending and bank profitability fall.  It also finds that...

Previous research has shown little difference in the average leisure time of men and women.  This finding is a challenge to the second shift argument, which suggests that increases in female labor market hours have not been compensated by equal decreases in household labor.  This paper...

This paper uses the introduction of the national minimum wage in the UK in April 1999 as a 'natural experiment' to analyse the impact of minimum wages on enrolment in schooling.  At the time of its introduction, only workers aged 18 years or more were covered by the legislation.  The paper...

This paper investigates how best to determine time-invariant policy rules in macroeconomic models with forward-looking constraints, where fully optimal policy is known to be time-inconsistent.  It proposes a new 'coefficient optimisation' approach that improves upon the timeless perspective...