Staff work for this report has entailed mainly a forecasting exercise covering 1983 in depth and 1984 on a preliminary basis. The 1984 projections are not presented in tabular form but are incorporated at various point in the text to amplify the analysis.

Not unpredictably, there is a complex energy bind as we approach the end of the twentieth century. The oil importing industrial countries have anchored their industries, their means of transportation, their home comfort- in short, their whole energy-dependent lifestyle-largely to hydrocarbon fuels.

Fiscal rules can help to counteract the deficits and spending biases that too often originate in the political process. Rules that constrain spending--rather than the balance--allow fiscal policy to be countercyclical. Yet the design of effective spending rules is by no means straightforward....

Most of the seven major industrial countries are now experiencing significant changes in their demographic structure. A persistent pattern of declining fertility and improving life expectancy has created major segments of the population that are already relatively aged or will become so in the...

This study examines the links between adjustment policies and growth in a small group of developing countries- Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, India, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, and Thailand - during 1970 -93. It provides an overview of the adjustment and growth experience, examines in depth several...

Large current account imbalances have been recorded in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union since their independence. Are these current account positions sustainable, reflecting the special circumstances of transition, or are the positions untenable over the longer...

The role of exchange rate policy in economic adjustment has been widely studied and is the subject of numerous theoretical and empirical papers produced in the Fund and elsewhere.

This paper is based on an IMF staff report prepared in connection with the application of the Mongolian People's Republic (Mongolia) for membership in the International Monetary Fund. It reviews Mongolia's political and economic history, highlighting its changing economic structure following...