We generalize the analysis of inflation bias with dynamic Phillips curves in three respects. First, we examine the discretionary (time consistent) solution in cases where the Phillips curve has both a backward-looking and forward-looking component. Second, we show that the commitment (time...

This paper shows that the WTO's Article XXIV increases the likelihood of free trade, but may worsen world welfare when free trade is not reached and customs unions (CUs) form.  We consider a model of many countries.  Article XXIV prevents a CU from raising its common external tariff, which...

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world's sixth largest economy is a still under-researched topic. We estimate a partially forward-looking Phillips curve as well as traditional backward-looking Phillips curves. Using quarterly...

The paper evaluates some proposals for macroeconomic stabilization in an open economy, which take the form of simple rules. The first rule assigns monetary policy to inflation control and does not require fiscal intervention. The second rule adds fiscal control of a foreign wealth target to the...

This paper first briefly describes the role of the WTO and its history. It then lays out a simple bargaining model of international negotiations, which can be used for understanding the Doha round of talks. This simple framework is used to distil and discuss a number of potential explanations...

This paper extends the analysis of the forthcoming fall in the dollar by Blanchard, Giavazzi and Sà 2005), using a model which incorporates forward-looking consumers. It provides additional underpinnings for the idea of a rapid adjustment in the value of the dollar. We analyze what will happen...

This paper studies the interactions of fiscal and monetary policy when they stabilise a single economy against shocks in a dynamic setting. We assume that fiscal and monetary policies both stabilise the economy only by causing changes to aggregate demand. Our findings are as follows. If the both...

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world’s sixth largest economy is a still under-researched topic. We estimate a partially forward-looking Phillips curve as well as traditional backward-looking Phillips curves. Using quarterly...