This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the...

This paper proposes a framework for deriving early-warning models with optimal out-of-sample forecasting properties and applies it to predicting distress in European banks. The main contributions of the paper are threefold. First, the paper introduces a conceptual framework to guide the process...

This paper investigates leading indicators of systemic banking crises in a panel of 11 EU countries, with a particular focus on Finland. We use quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2013Q2, in order to create a large number of macro-financial indicators, as well as their various transformations. We make...

Introduction -- Macroprudential Oversight -- Macroprudential Data -- Data and Dimension Reduction -- Data-Dimension Reductions: A Comparison -- Extending the SOM -- Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) -- Exploiting the SOFSM -- Decomposing Financial Crises with SOTMs -- Conclusions,...

Building on the literature on systemic risk and financial contagion, the paper introduces estimated network linkages into an early-warning model to predict bank distress among European banks. We use multivariate extreme value theory to estimate equity-based tail-dependence networks, whose links...

This paper uses domestic and cross-border linkages to measure the interconnectedness of the banking sector, and relates it to banking crises in Europe. Beyond cross-border financial linkages of the banking sector, we also account for financial linkages to the other main financial and...

Building on the literature on systemic risk and financial contagion, the pa- per introduces estimated network linkages into an early-warning model to predict bank distress among European banks. We use multivariate extreme value theory to estimate equity-based tail-dependence networks, whose...