The paper develops general, discrete, non-probabilistic market models and minmax price bounds leading to a price interval. The approach provides the trajectory based analogue of martingale-like properties as well as a generalization that allows a limited notion of arbitrage in the market while...

Maximum drawdown, the largest cumulative loss from peak to trough, is one of the most widely used indicators of risk in the fund management industry, but one of the least developed in the context of probabilistic risk metrics. We formalize drawdown risk as Conditional Expected Drawdown (CED),...

This paper studies the switching of trading strategies and its effect on the market volatility in a continuous double auction market. We describe the behavior when some uninformed agents, who we call switchers, decide whether or not to pay for information before they trade. By paying for the...

This paper studies the question of filtering and maximizing terminal wealth from expected utility in a stochastic volatility models. The special feature is that the only information available to the investor is the one generated by the asset prices and, in particular, the return processes cannot...

This paper explores the role of mass media in people perceptions of charismatic leaders, focusing on the case of Junichiro Koizumi, Prime Minister of Japan from 2001 to 2006. Using survey data collected immediately after his 2005 landslide electoral victory, this study empirically assesses the...

This paper focuses on the stability of the non-arbitrage condition in discrete time market models when some unknown information $\tau$ is partially/fully incorporated into the market. Our main conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, for a fixed market $S$, we prove that the non-arbitrage...

This paper presents the first empirical assessment of the causal relationship between social capital and health in Italy. The analysis draws on the 2000 wave of the Multipurpose Survey on Household conducted by the Italian Institute of Statistics on a representative sample of the population (n =...

In this study, we examine how the rice futures market in prewar Japan evolved in light of changes in market efficiency over time. Using a non-Bayesian time-varying VAR model, we compute the time-varying degree of market efficiency of the rice futures exchanges in Tokyo and Osaka. Then, we...

We use the GARCH model with a fat-tailed error distribution described by a rational function and apply it for the stock price data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. To determine the model parameters we perform the Bayesian inference to the model. The Bayesian inference is implemented by the...

Under proportional transaction costs, a price process is said to have a consistent price system, if there is a semimartingale with an equivalent martingale measure that evolves within the bid-ask spread. We show that a continuous, multi-asset price process has a consistent price system, under...