This study uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) to reproduce aggregate per-capita consumption patterns for the New Zealand economy. Results suggest that non-linear ANNs can outperform a linear econometric model at out-of-sample forecasting. The best ANN at matching in-sample data, however, is...

Bayesian model averaging has increasingly witnessed applications across an array of empirical contexts. However, the dearth of available statistical software which allows one to engage in a model averaging exercise is limited. It is common for consumers of these methods to develop their own...

This paper assesses the e¤ectiveness of unconfoundedness-based estimators of mean e¤ects for multiple or multivalued treatments in eliminating biases arising from nonrandom treatment assignment. We evaluate these multiple treatment estimators by simultaneously equalizing average outcomes among...

A principal must decide whether to implement each of two independent proposals (e.g., earmark requests, policy reforms, grant funding) of unknown quality. Each proposal is represented by an agent who advocates by producing evidence about quality. Although the principal prefers the...

An advocate for a special interest provides information to an uninformed planner for her to consider in making a sequence of important decisions. Although the advocate may have valuable information for the planner, it is is also known that the advocate is biased and will distort his advice if...

We examine a model of long-term contracting in which the buyer is privately informed about the stochastic process by which her value for a good evolves. In addition, her realized values are also her private information. We characterize the profit-maximizing long-term contract offered by a...

This paper describes the relative merits and attractiveness of the newest Bayesian model averaging package, BMS, available in the statistical software R to implement a Bayesian model averaging exercise. This package provides the user with a wide range of customizable priors for conducting a BMA...

We introduce a novel approach for organizing behavior and explaining cooperation in repeated games. Our approach is based on the idea that players differ according to an inherent propensity to cooperate that systematically affects behavior and cooperation levels. We formulate the empirical...

Using data from a large U.S. retail firm, we examine how differences in race, age, and gender between a manager and a subordinate affect the subordinate’s rate of quits, dismissals, and promotions. These differences can have statistically significant and sometimes large effects— especially...

We investigate the effect of health insurance on labor market transitions in and out of self-employment as well as on the likelihood of being self-employed. We consider the role of individual health insurance coverage along with that from a spouse. Next, we examine a series of tax deductions...