In this paper I propose a regime switching approach to explain why the US nominal yield curve has been on average steeper since the mid-1980's than during the Great Inflation of the 1970's. I show that, once the possibility of regime switches in the short-rate process is incorporated into...

This paper uses a time-varying Factor Augmented VAR to investigate the evolving transmission of monetary policy and demand shocks in the UK. Simultaneous estimation of time-varying impulse responses of a large set of macroeconomic variables and disaggregated prices suggest that the response of...

We study the dynamics of risk premia in a model with external habit formation and highlight the significance of “recession predictability”. Although under the specification of Campbell and Cochrane, [<italic>Journal of Political Economy</italic> 107, 205–251 (1999)] the equity risk premium is...

This paper studies the policy implications of habits and cyclical changes in agents' appetite for risk-taking. To do so, it analyses the non-linear solution of a New Keynesian (NK) model, in which slow-moving habits help match the cyclical properties of risk-premia. Our findings suggest that the...

We study alternative approaches to the withdrawal of prolonged unconventional monetary stimulus ("exit strategies") by central banks in large, advanced economies. We first show empirically that large-scale asset purchases affect the exchange rate and domestic and foreign term premiums more...

This paper uses a time-varying Factor Augmented VAR to investigate the evolving transmission of monetary policy and demand shocks in the UK. Simultaneous estimation of time-varying impulse responses of a large set of macroeconomic variables and disaggregated prices suggest that the response of...

This paper studies the policy implications of habits and cyclical changes in agents' appetite for risk-taking. To do so, it analyses the non-linear solution of a New Keynesian (NK) model, in which slow-moving habits help match the cyclical properties of risk-premia. Our findings suggest that the...

This paper uses a factor-augmented vector autoregression technique to examine the role that macroeconomic and sector-specific factors play in UK price fluctuations at the aggregate and disaggregated levels. Macroeconomic factors are less important for disaggregated prices than aggregate ones....