This paper describes the components of the EICIE, the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy. This measure concerns quarterly and annual growth of Dutch real Gross Domestic Product. The key component of our real-time forecasting model for Dutch quarterly GDP is weekly staffing...

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new to develop product. The tau-equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability....

This paper presents the results of a survey held amongst all editorial board members of six journals. These journals in part focus on the development of models and methods for forecasting. The key question was whether one believes that the forecasting discipline has made progress in the last...

Seasonal adjustment methods transform observed time series data into estimated data, where these estimated data are constructed such that they show no or almost no seasonal variation. An advantage of model-based methods is that these can provide confidence intervals around the seasonally...

The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time-varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...

This report is the third part of a PhD project entitled "The Econometrics of Maritime Safety – Recommendations to Enhance Safety at Sea" which is based on 183,000 port state control inspections and 11,700 casualties from various data sources. Its overall objective is to provide recommendations...

A key feature of many nonlinear time series models is that they allow for the possibility that the model structure experiences changes, depending on for example the state of the economy or of the financial market. A common property of these models is that it generally is not possible to fully...

This report is the fourth part of a PhD project called "The Econometrics of Maritime Safety – Recommendations to Enhance Safety at Sea" and is based on 183,000 port state control inspections and 11,700 casualties from various data sources. Its overall objective is to provide recommendations to...

This chapter deals with forecasting sales (in units or money), where an explicit distinction is made between sales of durable goods (computers, cars, books) and sales of utilitarian products (SKU level in supermarkets). Invariably, sales forecasting amounts to a combination of statistical...

Experts frequently adjust statistical model-based forecasts. Sometimes this leads to higher forecast accuracy, but expert forecasts can also be dramatically worse. We explore the potential drivers of the relevance and quality of experts' added knowledge. For that purpose, we examine a very large...