Yield curve models within the popular Nelson and Siegel (hereafter NS) class are shown to arise from a formal low-order Taylor approximation to the generic Gaussian affine term structure model. That theoretical foundation provides an assurance that NS models correspond to a well-accepted...

Recent literature has focuses on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting...

This paper investigates the mechanism of international technology cooperation and its effect on the timing and cost of global climate mitigation. I firstly present a simple analytical framework that describes how international R&D coordination works and its importance to climate change...

Using a unique dataset on daily foreign exchange intervention and a new methodological framework of a latent factor model of central bank intervention, this paper addresses the effects of intervention in an emerging market. Events in financial markets from 2002 to 2010 provide a natural...

The possible crucial role of international bank lending in the transmission of adverse economic disturbance from advanced economies to emerging economies in the recent global financial crisis has once again placed this type of capital flows into sharper scrutiny both in academic and policy...

Much evidence suggests that people are heterogeneous with regard to their abilities to make rational, forward-looking decisions. This raises the question as to when the rational types are decisive for aggregate outcomes and when the boundedly rational types shape aggregate results. We examine...

Export led growth has been very effective in modernising China’s economy and establishing a large high-saving middle class. Notwithstanding political opposition from trading partners, this growth strategy has also offered the rest of the world an improved terms of trade and cheaper finance....

In recent years state space models, particularly the linear Gaussian version, have become the standard framework for analyzing macro-economic and financial data. However, many theoretically motivated models imply non-linear or non-Gaussian specifications – or both. Existing methods for...

This paper examines the effectiveness of China's indigenous R&D investment and technological innovation to curb its carbon emissions. The mechanism of endogenous technical change (TC) is incorporated an intertemporal computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. R&D investments and knowledge...

We consider an adaptive importance sampling approach to estimating the marginal likelihood, a quantity that is fundamental in Bayesian model comparison and Bayesian model averaging. This approach is motivated by the difficulty of obtaining an accurate estimate through existing algorithms that...