find that policy-induced exogenous increases in US rates raise default risk in emerging market economies, as hypothesised … real interest rates and reduce the risk of default dominate the hypothesised relationship. We can only conclude that it …

productivity. A quantitative model of news and sovereign debt default with endogenous maturity choice generates impulse responses …-term debt does not shield the country from bad news shocks, and it may even exacerbate default risk. Finally, an increase in the …

extensions upon restructurings: income recovery after default, credit exclusion after restructuring, and regulatory costs of book …

to compensate for risk. Real ex-post returns averaged 7% annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major … and with the degree of credit risk in this market, as measured by historical default and recovery rates. Based on our …

-specific fiscal shocks. Differences in the cyclicality of fiscal revenues affect the option value of borrowing and resulting default …

This paper presents a theoretical model of strategic default to assess how national and international policymakers … should seek to influence the cost of default and the distribution of bargaining power in the event of a default. We find that …, in the absence of restrictions on the parameter space, deadweight costs of default should be driven to zero. Moreover, if …