Analysts using data from official statistical authorities often neglect the fact that data frequently is collected using sample surveys. We study the impact of sampling error on the estimation of the autocorrelation function for a population total under a microbased superpopulation time series...

In Cassel and Lundquist (1990) the existence of sampling bias in estimating autocorrelation functions was discussed under a superpopulation model. One restriction of that model was that the time series model should not exhibit trend. In this paper we relax that restriction. The bias of a...

The question often arises as to whether one can estimate a transfer function model using Stata. While Stata does not currently have a convenience command for doing so, this article will demonstrate that estimating such a model can be accomplished quite easily using Stata's arima command. The...

Using a microbased superpopulation approach (see Cassel and Lundquist (1991), (1990))the question of optimal predictors of a population total of AR(1) series is analysed. Only a sample of the individual timeseries in the population is observed. From the sample the population total is predicted....

This paper argues the fact the empirical evidence on persistence is mixed is not very surprising, as economic theory is bound to be drawn upon in order to specify the statistical model. This is illustrated in two ways. Firstly, we highlight the fact that concept of persistence is model...

This paper investigates inflation dynamics in a panel of 20 OECD economies using an approach based on the sample autocorrelation function (ACF). We find that inflation is characterized by long-lasting fluctuations, which are similar across countries and that eventually revert to a potentially...

The aim of this paper is to examine the measurement of persistence in a range of time series models nested in the framework of Cramer (1961). This framework is a generalization of the Wold (1938) decomposition for stationary time series which, in addition to accommodating the standard I(0) and...

We provide a methodology to disentangle the long-run relation between variables from their own dynamics. Macroeconomic and aggregate financial series have a high degree of inertia. If this persistence is not properly accounted for, spurious correlations will give rise to paradoxes. Our procedure...

This paper argues that persistence is not an invariant feature of a time series, but depends on the context in which the series is used: as the parameters of any dynamic model are defined relative to a particular information set, any change in the set of conditioning variables might affect the...

Financial return series of sufficiently high frequency display stylized facts such as volatility clustering, high kurtosis, low starting and slow-decaying autocorrelation function of squared returns and the so-called Taylor effect. In order to evaluate the capacity of volatility models to...