In recent years, the sales reports of major retail chains have received increasing attention as timely indicators of consumer spending. Despite this attention, a close review of the literature on chain store indexes as macroeconomic indicators reveals that there is no literature! This paper...

We estimate and test a model of the U.S. term structure that fits both the time series of interest rates and the cross-sectional shapes of the yield and volatility curves. In the model, three unobserved factors drive a stochastic discount process that prices assets so as to rule out arbitrage...

The paper examines the evolution of U.S. external balances since 1980 and considers various explanations for the persistence of external deficits in the late 1980s and the 1990s. It also offers a general assessment of the medium-term prospects for U.S. current account deficits. The review of...