We test for a change in the volatility of 215 US macroeconomic time series over the period 1960-1996. We find that about 90% of these series have experienced a break in volatility during this period. This result is robust to controlling for instability in the mean and business cycle...

This paper analyses the cyclical properties in the main western economies (G-7 countries, Spain and Switzerland). Using the contemporary or maximum cross-correlation with the GDP could mask or find similarities among countries when they do not exist, we focus on the structure of a wide set of...

This paper analyzes the implications of excess bank liquidity for the effectiveness of monetary policy in a simple model with credit market imperfections. Lending rates are set as a premium over the cost of borrowing from the central bank, with the premium itself depending on firms’ net worth....

This paper analyses monthly values of the short-term interest rate for the US, the UK and Germany since the early 1980s in the context of possible nonlinearities and changes over time in the interest rate response to the output gap, inflation, past interest rate changes and external variables...

This paper develops a gender-based OLG model of endogenous growth to analyze the impact of infrastructure on women’s time allocation between market work, raising children, own health care, home production, and leisure. Gender bias occurs as a result of firms discriminating between men and...

This paper uses logistic regression to construct a one-quarter ahead prediction model for classical business cycle regimes in the UK. The binary dependent variable is obtained by applying simple mechanical rules to date turning points in quarterly real GDP data from 1963 to 1999. Using a range...

Volatility breaks are tested and documented for 19 important monthly macroeconomic time series across the G7 countries. Across all conditional mean specifications considered, including both linear and nonlinear models with and without a structural break, volatility breaks are found to be...

This paper explores how the optimal mode of public finance depends on the stage of economic development. The theoretical analysis is based on an overlapping generations growth model with an imperfect capital market. Random shocks create a demand for liquidity and establish a role for financial...

This paper studies optimal direct and indirect taxation in an endogenous growth framework with a productive public good and costly tax collection. Optimal (growth-maximizing) tax rules are derived under exogenous collection costs. The optimal direct-indirect tax ratio is shown to be negatively...