To date, there has been little investigation of the impact of seasonal adjustment on the detection of business cycle expansion and recession regimes. We study this question both analytically and through Monte Carlo simulations. Analytically, we view the occurrence of a single business cycle...

In a simple, forward looking univariate model of price determination we investigate the evolution of endogenous predictor choice dynamics in presence of two types of agents: fundamentalists an chartists. We find that heterogeneous equilibria in which fundamentalists and chartists coexist are...

This paper develops a model that examines the effect of monetary policy uncertainty on trend growth. It is assume that the provision of potentially productive public goods and services is financed by money creation (seignorage). Uncertainty derives from stochastic fluctuations in money supply....

This paper investigates the relationship between public investment in transportation and communication and economic growth using traditional instrumental estimation and a mixed fixed and random coefficient approach in the context of a dynamic panel framework. We find that there is a dynamic...

This paper puts in perspective the recent research on the macroeconomics of poverty reduction. It begins by arguing that research on poverty was, and continues to be, distorted by an excessive focus on micro and measurement issues. The debate on "pro-poor growth" is used to illustrate the extent...

Recent literature has uncovered asymmetries in the response of real output to monetary policy variables. Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether such asymmetries relate to different responses to monetary policy or to the business cycle. This paper uses nonlinear models to examine the issues in...