This article examines the exchange-rate determination in a target-zone regime when the bounds can be fixed for an extended period but are subject to occasional jumps. In this case, the behavior of the endogenous variable is affected by the agents' expectations about both the occurrence and the...

This note provides a generalization of the standard adjustment cost-rational expectations model due to Sargent (1978), which, in addition to the cost of changing the level of the decision variable, also allows for the cost of altering the "speed" with which decisions are changed. It establishes...

This paper extends the results obtained by Pagan (1984) and Turkington (1985) for single equation rational expectations (RE) models to multivariate RE models and shows that the errors-in-variables method and the substitution method discussed in Wickens (1982) lead to exactly the same likelihood...

This Paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...

This Paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated...