We develop a bivariate spectral Granger-causality test that can be applied at each individual frequency of the spectrum. The spectral approach to Granger causality has the distinct advantage that it allows to disentangle (potentially) di®erent Granger- causality relationships over di®erent...

For over forty years, Business Tendency Surveys have been collected in multiple member states of the European Union. Previous research has studied the predictive accuracy of the expectation variables included in those surveys through bivariate, within-country, Granger-causality tests, which has...

We develop a bivariate spectral Granger-causality test that can be applied at each individual frequency of the spectrum. The spectral approach to Granger causality has the distinct advantage that it allows to disentangle (potentially) di®erent Granger- causality relationships over di®erent...

We develop a bivariate spectral Granger-causality test that can be applied at eachindividual frequency of the spectrum. The spectral approach to Granger causality hasthe distinct advantage that it allows to disentangle (potentially) di®erent Granger-causality relationships over di®erent time...

For over forty years, Business Tendency Surveys have been collected in multiple member states of the European Union. Previous research has studied the predictive accuracy of the expectation variables included in those surveys through bivariate, within-country, Granger-causality tests, which has...

Decomposing Granger causality over the spectrum allows to disentangle potentially different Granger causality relationships over different frequencies. This may yield new and complementary insights compared to traditional versions of Granger causality. In this paper, we compare two existing...

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable...

In content- and knowledge-based recommender systems often a measure of (dis)similarity between items is used. Frequently, this measure is based on the attributes of the items. However, which attributes are important for the users of the system remains an important question to answer. In this...

The Bass (1969) diffusion theory often guides the construction of forecasting models for new product diffusion. To match the model with data, one needs to put forward a statistical model. This paper compares four empirical versions of the model, where two of these explicitly incorporate...

We study the performance of sales forecasts which linearly combine model-based forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a unique and very large database containing monthly model-based forecasts for many pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by thirty-seven different experts, we document that...