The main purpose of this paper is to review the evolution of OPEC models and to link this evolution to some key events in the oil market. Our main conclusion is that OPEC's pricing power varies over time. In many instances, OPEC can lose power to limit oil price movements in either direction....

We assess the causes and implications of the greater financial participation in commodity markets post-2003. Focusing on crude oil, we build a calibrated macro-finance model of oil prices and quantities that also determines consumer welfare. We show that shifts in the preferences and constraints...

"This paper presents a theory to link improvements in transparency about monetary policy objectives to improvements in transparency about monetary policy actions and then to the conditional volatility of market expectations of policy rates. Crucially, policy announcements act not just as an...