La littérature sur la prévision économique et financière a identifié trois problèmes importants : l'instabilité des régressions prédictives, la discordance des résultats des tests de prévisions en échantillon et hors échantillon, et la difficile inférence statistique lorsque les...

Researchers in finance very often rely on highly persistent - nearly integrated - explanatory variables to predict returns. This paper proposes to stand up to the usual problem of persistent regressor bias, by detrending the highly auto-correlated predictors. We find that the statistical...

We provide an economic valuation of the riskiness of risk models by directly measuring the impact of model risks (specification and estimation risks) on VaR estimates. We find that integrating the model risk into the VaR computations implies a substantial minimum correction of the order of...

Researchers in finance very often rely on highly persistent Ñ nearly integrated Ñ explanatory variables to predict returns. This paper proposes to stand up to the usual problem of persistent regressor bias, by detrending the highly auto-correlated predictors. We find that the statistical...

We provide an economic valuation of the riskiness of risk models by directly measuring the impact of model risks (specification and estimation risks) on VaR estimates. We find that integrating the model risk into the VaR computations implies a substantial minimum correction of the order of...