In this paper we show that commodity price co-movements between petroleum and other commodities, although infrequent, are not unique to recent periods, as alluded to in the current literature. We find that much of the volatility in commodity prices over long time spans is caused by economic...

An incumbent allocates in period 1 of a two period game, a resource into production, fighting with the challenger, and producing public goods, which impact the probability of winning an election. In period 2 the incumbent may accept the election result, or a coalition or standoff may follow. We...

This paper compares the effects of contractionary monetary policy and exchange rate appreciation shocks of one standard deviation in size, on the South Africa trade balance using recursive and sign-restriction vector autoregressive models. We find that an exchange rate appreciation shock lowers...

In this paper, we have presented the patterns of inequality, growth and income inequality in the MENA region. Using a cross-sectional time series data of MENA countries for the period 1985-2009, we have also investigated the effect of income inequality on key societal development, namely...

We develop a global vector autoregressive model (GVAR) to analyze the globalgrowth spillover e¤ects on Africa. The model contains 46 African countries and30 developed and emerging market countries, covering 90 percent of the world econ-omy. The results suggest that there is a signi…cant growth...

This paper derives the inflation equation to search for a possible transmission channel between the real interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rates, real output growth rate using a Bayesian VAR sign restriction approach. Our findings show that the real interest rate reacts negatively to...

The study used a structural vector autoregressive approach to estimate and quantify the percentage decline in consumption expenditure, which can be attributed to changes in housing wealth, after monetary policy tightening. The effects are separated using a disaggregated Absa house price data,...

This paper analyses the applicability of a nonlinear Taylor rule in characterizing the monetary policy behavior of the South African Reserve Bank, using a logistic smooth transition regression approach. Using quarterly data from 1976 to 2008 to analyze the movement of the nominal short term...

Drawing on the 2007 and 2010 Swaziland Labor Force Surveys, this paper provides first systematic evidence on recent youth employment challenges in Swaziland, a small, land-locked, middle-income country with one of the highest youth unemployment rates in Africa. The paper first documents the...

The East African Community (EAC) economic integration has gained momentum recently, with the EAC countries aiming to adopt a single currency in 2015. This paper evaluates empirically the readiness of the EAC countries for monetary union. First, structural similarity of the EAC countries is...