This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after...

In this paper we explore the information content of a large set of fiscal indicators for US real output growth and inflation. We provide evidence that fluctuations in certain fiscal variables contain valuable information to predict fluctuations in output and prices. The distinction between...

During the 15 years prior to the global financial crisis the volume of securitized assets transacted in the US has grown substantially, reflecting a change in the nature of the financial intermediation process. Together with increased securitization, financial entities, who participate more...

This paper proposes a novel and flexible framework to estimate autoregressive models with time-varying parameters. Our setup nests various adaptive algorithms that are commonly used in the macroeconometric literature, such as learning-expectations and forgetting-factor algorithms. These are...

We estimate the Feldstein-Horioka equation for the period 1960-2012 and find structural breaks that coincide with the introduction of the European single market in 1993, the introduction of the euro in 1999 and the financial crisis in 2008. The results suggest that the correlation between...

The paper investigates whether social capital can affect the standard living of the Italian households based on poverty and social exclusion. The analysis is developed at the regional level through cross-sections based in the year 2002 and in the year 2003. The indices of social capital that we...

Why do nations with heterogeneous economies, geographic positions and institutions agree to dispatch their troops to remote conflict areas? This paper explores the domestic and international determinants of countries' contribution to peacekeeping operations from 1999 to 2009. Individual nations...

We apply graphical modelling theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches of which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions of graphical modelling is a data based tool. Our results are in...