In 2020 many countries are struggling to respond to a ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 infections through: mandatory and voluntary social distancing (SD) measures; testing, contact tracing and isolation; border controls; and economic incentives and stimulus measures. A second wave of infections...

An additional explanation is provided for the decline in output variability that began in the mid-1980s. Using state, regional and aggregate data for the US, we examine the shifting influence from manufacturing to services on this variability. At all levels, we find support for this output...

Employing US state data, a positive correlation is found between inflation and growth during the 1980s, accompanied by a downward trend in inflation. During the 1960s and 1970s, a negative correlation was accompanied by an upward trend in inflation.

We incorporate risk aversion into the technology component of the production function. In a traditional theoretic framework, we show that an increase in risk aversion increases unemployment and reduces potential output. Our out-of-sample forecasting experiments suggest that while interest rates...

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