Empirical evidence shows that diversified banks (i.e. financial conglomerates) trade at a discount compared to a matched portfolio of specialized stand-alone banks. While one strand of research explains this puzzle primarily with inefficiencies in the cash flow management, we analyze whether...

We use data from betting markets to analyze the sensitivity of stock returns to potential outcomes of political events such as elections. By classifying stocks into expected conditional winners and losers prior to such an event, we form portfolios that generate large positive returns after the...

We develop a simulation algorithm that generates multivariate samples with exact means, covariances, and multivariate skewness. If required for financial applications, absence of arbitrage can be ensured. Potential applications include the simulation of risk factors for the risk management of...

We compare risk-neutral densities from equity index options across several markets during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. These densities reflect market expectations regarding its economic impact. The markets reacted abruptly and simultaneously initially, but with a marked time lag...

For most events, risk-neutral outcome probabilities are identical across numeraire currencies. Some events, however, such as elections or referendums, may have an impact on exchange rates. This implies numeraire dependence in risk-neutral outcome probabilities, which leads to different state...

Betting quotes provide valuable information on market-implied probabilities for outcomes of events like elections or referendums, which may have an impact on exchange rates. We generate exchange rate forecasts around such events based on a model that combines risk-neutral event probabilities...

This paper argues that the relation between financial analysts' earnings forecast accuracy and their recommendation profitability has to be augmented by the extent of commonality in their forecast errors. We show that while accuracy is positively related to expected performance, the correlation...

We consider optimal consumption and (strategic) asset allocation of an investor with uncertain lifetime. The problem is solved using a multi-stage stochastic linear programming (SLP) model to be able to generalize the closed-form solution obtained by Richard (1975). We account for aspects of the...

We analyze the interdependence between the government yield spread and stock returns of the banking sector in Italy during the years 2003-2015. In a first step, we find that after September 2008 the Spearman's rank correlation between the yield spread and the Italian banking system changed...

We propose an equilibrium model of asset prices in which agents learn about the mean and the volatility of the endowment process and differ in their concerns about parameter uncertainty. We show that, in equilibrium, following unexpected bad and good news about economic outcomes (i) uncertainty...