We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters. In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use our estimated elasticities to...

Optimal crop choice and fertilizer applications depend on the stochastic dynamics of commodity prices, fertilizer prices, and the agronomic effects of rotation versus monoculture. The efficient decision rule accounts for real option values associated with maintaining land disposition in an...

Mounting evidence indicates climate change will adversely influence agricultural crop yields and cause greater year-to-year variability. This paper considers how a rational, forward-looking and competitive commodity market would account for these anticipated changes and thereby influence time...