This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

We develop simple and non-asymptotically justified methods for hypothesis testing about the coefficients ($\theta^{*}\in\mathbb{R}^{p}$) in the high dimensional generalized regression models where $p$ can exceed the sample size. Given a function $h:\,\mathbb{R}^{p}\mapsto\mathbb{R}^{m}$, we...

We develop simple and non-asymptotically justified methods for hypothesis testing about the coefficients ($\theta^{*}\in\mathbb{R}^{p}$) in the high dimensional (generalized) regression models where $p$ can exceed the sample size $n$. Given a function $h:\,\mathbb{R}^{p}\mapsto\mathbb{R}^{m}$,...

We develop non-asymptotically justified methods for hypothesis testing about the p-dimensional coefficients in (possibly nonlinear) regression models, where the hypotheses can also be nonlinear in the coefficients. Our (nonasymptotic) control on the Type I and Type II errors holds for fixed n...

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...

This paper proposes a new testing procedure for the degree of fractional integration of a time series inspired on the unit root test of Dickey-Fuller (1979). The composite null hypothesis is that of d=d0 against d<d0. The test statistics is the same as in Dickey-Fuller test, exploiting the fact that if the process, under study, is I(d0) then the (-1+d0)th differenced series is I(1) under the null d=d0. If d>=d0, using the generalization of Sowell's results (1990), we propose a test based...</d0.>

In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...

This paper introduces a new family of portmanteau tests for serial correlation. Using the wavelet transform, we decompose the variance of the underlying process into the variance of its low frequency and of its high frequency components and we design a variance ratio test of no serial...

This paper proposes a new testing procedure for the degree of fractional integration of a time series inspired on the unit root test of Dickey-Fuller (1979). The composite null hypothesis is that of d=d0 against d<d0. The test statistics is the same as in Dickey-Fuller test, exploiting the fact that if the process, under study, is I(d0) then the (-1+d0)th differenced series is I(1) under the null d=d0. If d>=d0, using the generalization of Sowell's results (1990), we propose a test based...</d0.>

This research reflects the importance in statistics of the territorial indexes numbers which express the dynamic of the statistical variables in territorial profile. The purpose of this paper consists in to reflect over of the economic life, how we will can to apply some important...