episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second …, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and financial variables during these episodes of very high uncertainty. This … markets. We find that very high uncertainty episodes are associated with a weaker growth performance and sharp declines in …

episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second …, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and financial variables during these episodes of very high uncertainty. This … markets. We find that very high uncertainty episodes are associated with a weaker growth performance and sharp declines in …

Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the … economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle different types … of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques to classify different types of news instead of specifying a set of …

This study constructs the macroeconomic uncertainty indices for an emerging economy, India, and considers other … macroeconomic uncertainty indices to evaluate their relative effectiveness in terms of tracing the business cycles and finding out … identify different uncertainty channels of aggregate demand and supply. The derived measures of uncertainty are higher around …

I investigate the dynamics of analyst forecast errors relative to economic policy uncertainty and find a significant … positive relation between economic policy uncertainty and analyst forecast errors. A doubling of economic policy uncertainty is … forecast errors are positively related to the economic policy uncertainty. Earnings forecast errors are higher for firms with …

, and characterize their distribution, focusing on the uncertainty implied by both sampling and the polarization of … this uncertainty concerns the coincidence of responses, or the degree to which polarization comoves, across individual … by the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We find a secular rise in consumer uncertainty starting around 2000, following a …

This study develops a new economic uncertainty (EU) index based on Chinese newspapers by addressing the media coverage … bias of existing measures. The developed index refines the existing methods on measuring uncertainty by taking special … economic activities and uncertainty in both linear and nonlinear settings. The results suggest that uncertainty Granger causes …

The news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty indices (EPU) of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom display discernible … trends that can be found neither in other European countries nor in other uncertainty indicators. Therefore, we replicate the … raw counts of news related to economic policy uncertainty by the count of all newspaper articles. We show that an …

Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the … economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle different types … of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques to classify different types of news instead of specifying a set of …

episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second …, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and financial variables during these episodes of very high uncertainty. This … markets. We find that very high uncertainty episodes are associated with a weaker growth performance and sharp declines in …