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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010473439
Convention wisdom usually suggests that agents should use all the data they have to make the best possible prediction. In this paper it is shown that agents may sometimes be able to make better predictions by throwing away data. The optimality criterion agents adopt is the mean squared criterion.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005660921
. We show, in particular, that majorization properties of linear combinations of log-concavely distributed signals are …The structure of many models in economics and finance depends on majorization properties of convolutions of … distributions. In this paper, we analyze robustness of these properties and the models based on them to heavy-tailedness assumptions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005170266
We study robustness of the model of demand driven innovation and spatial competition over time with log …-concavely distributed signals in Jovanovic and Rob (1987) to heavy-tailedness assumptions. We demonstrate that implications of the model … remain valid for not extremely heavy-tailed distributions of consumers' signals. However, its properties are reversed in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014063165
Investment in physical capital at the micro level is infrequent and large, or lumpy. The most common explanation for … this is that firms face non-convex physical adjustment costs. The model developed in this paper shows that information … costs make investment lumpy at the micro level, even in the absence of non-convex adjustment costs. When collecting and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062753
dynamically optimize over consumption, investment in capital, and investment in information. The model predicts that investors … financial sector, such as the sources of variation in returns on information acquisition for investment banks or private equity …This paper studies intertemporal information acquisition by agents that are rational Bayesian learners and that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025129
. Second, the investment flow reacts positively to information that arrives while the project is developed. We find that the … investment decisions are more sensitive to the information received during the development than to the information held prior to …We present a dynamic model of venture capital financing, described as a sequential investment problem with uncertain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014046089
There is an ample amount of work on private investment for the cases of both developed and developing economies. Blejer … and Khan (1984) study the investment function for developing countries using pooled data of 24 countries for the period … investment. They observe that crowding-out phenomena works in case of noninfrastructural investment. As quoted by Saker (1993 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031068
, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to … principal components analysis to extract the common signals from the surveys. I show that the ability of different population … power for both GDP growth and excess stock returns, and that the results are robust to the inclusion of information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230635
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230637