This paper theoretically evaluates the dynamic effects of a shift in an exchange rate system from a fixed regime to a basket peg, or to a floating regime, and obtains transition paths for the shift based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We apply...

This paper discusses adjustments of capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes in East Asia. Monetary authorities have two options for these adjustments: gradual adjustments or rapid adjustments. We analyze the costs and benefits for both adjustment options in each area, i.e.,...

This paper compares three methods of analyzing exchange rate regimes in East Asia: static analysis, conventional dynamic analysis, and dynamic transition analysis. First we provide quantitative results that both estimated parameters for Thailand and time intervals are applied symmetrically...

Sovereign debt restructurings can be implemented preemptively - prior to a payment default. We code a comprehensive new dataset and find that preemptive restructurings (i) are frequent (38% of all deals 1978-2010), (ii) have lower haircuts, (iii) are quicker to negotiate, and (iv) see lower...

This paper analyzes the optimal transition of the exchange rate regime in the People's Republic of China (PRC). How the PRC can successfully reach the desired regime - whether a basket peg or floating regime - from the current dollar-peg regime remains a major question. To answer it, we develop...

This paper examines the causes, process, and outcome of Belize's 2016-17 sovereign debt restructuring - its third episode in last 10 years. As was the case in the earlier two restructurings, in 2006-07 and in 2012-13, the 2016-17 debt restructuring was executed through collaborative engagement...

We quantify dynamic effect of shifts of exchange rate system from the dollar-peg to the basket- peg or floating and obtain transition paths for the shifts, based on a dynamic small open-economy model. We find that a small open country will be better off shifting to the basket-peg or floating...

This paper determines whether adopting the basket-peg rather than the floating regime is optimal for emerging market countries. Under the basket-peg regime, there is a trade-off between practical usefulness and welfare losses associated with capital movements across countries. We develop a...

This paper discusses desirable exchange rate regimes and how countries can shift from their current regimes to these regimes over the medium term. We demonstrate the superiority of a basket-peg regime with the basket weight rule over a floating regime with the interest rate rule or the money...

The paper considers the optimal transition path for China's exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime? To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy...