Analysis of five nationally representative household surveys from Uganda show a fall in poverty from 1992-1997. Using an absolute poverty line calculated following Ravallion and Bidani, we find 56% of Ugandans were poor in 1992 falling to 44% in 1997/8. The conclusion that poverty fell is robust...

This paper shows that a monopolistic certifying party can have incentives to disclose revealing information about the agent he is certifying. Using a three-person game-theoretic model and allowing certificate users (buyers) to have noisy estimates of the quality level of the agent being...

A theory of decision making is proposed that supplies an axiomatic basis for the concept of satisficing postulated by Herbert Simon. After a detailed review of classical results that characterize several varieties of preference-maximizing choice behavior, the axiomatization proceeds by weakening...

Analyses of the Asian crisis have focused excessively on the financial sector, especially the banks. The role of the real sector in exposing the financial system to stress has been under-emphasized. This paper provides a real-sector explanation for the Thai crisis of 1997, demonstrating the role...

This paper examines the long-run (steady-state) relationship between levels of educational human capital and levels of income for the 15 major states of India between 1965 and 1992. The relationship is estimated using the Pooled Mean Groups (PMG) technique; which produces common long-run...

In this chapter we propose using compound Poisson processes to model trade-by-trade financial data. Our main focus will be on developing specific types of Cox processes in order to accurately depict the trading process. We study the problem of signal extracting the intensity of the trading...

This paper tests the efficiency of insurance markets in the Pakistan Punjab by examining how crop choices are affected by the presence of price and yield risk. We estimate reduced-form and structural models of crop choices. Although we cannot reject the hypothesis that village members...

This paper is concerned with the estimation of stochastic differential equations when only discrete observations are available. It primarily focuses on deriving a closed form solution for the one-step ahead conditional transition density using the Milstein scheme. This higher order Taylor...

The appropriateness of financial liberalisation in Africa - at least over the short-term - is in doubt. It has been suggested that the credit risks faced by financial institutions will be detrimental to the supply of credit. The contribution of this paper is to point out that financial...

This paper proposes a new framework for the impulse-response analysis of business cycle transitions. A cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model is found to be a congruent representation of post-war US employment and output data. In this model some parameters change according to...