The first essay introduces a Bayesian logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (LSTVAR) approach to investigating the impact of international business cycles on the UK economy. We find that the British business cycle is asymmetrically influenced by growth in the US, France and Germany....

The first essay attempts to explain how the economy responds to transient exogenous exchange rate and cost-push shocks using a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates prices and wage stickiness and cost channel of interest rate to inflation. The model...

This thesis investigates impacts of oil price on monetary policy in oil-exporting countries.The second chapter reviews the forward-looking new Keynesian model, to show the need for credibility and conservativeness in order to have less inflation, which are the theoretical foundations of central...

In the literature, many statistical models have been used to investigate the existence of a deterministic time trend, changing persistence and nonlinearity in macroeconomic and financial data. Good understanding of these properties in a univariate time series model is crucial when making...

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...

Suggests major factors that will enable service companies to become winners in the 1990s. Includes comment on strategic vision in service delivery, customer needs, communicating leadership vision to front‐line people and the necessary investment in training. Discusses “customer service...