In this paper we use Household Budget Survey data to analyze the evolution of the household credit market in the Czech Republic over the period 2000–2008. While the share of households that borrow remained stable and below 40%, the amount of debt outstanding increased. We estimate a...

This paper examines the impact of monetary conditions on the risk-taking behaviour of banks in the Czech Republic by analysing the comprehensive credit register of the Czech National Bank. Our duration analysis indicates that expansionary monetary conditions promote risk-taking among banks. At...

This paper shows how fan charts generated from Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models can be useful for assessing 1) the forecasting accuracy of central banks’ prediction models and 2) the credibility of stress tests carried out to evaluate financial stability. Using unique data...

We develop a numerical procedure that facilitates efficient likelihood evaluation in applications involving non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. The procedure employs continuous approximations of filtering densities, and delivers unconditionally optimal global approximations of...

The short-run increase in prices following an unexpected tightening of monetary policy represents a frequently reported puzzle. Yet the puzzle is surprisingly easy to explain away when all published models are quantitatively reviewed. We collect about 1,000 point estimates of impulse responses...

The paper aims at enriching current discussions about the equilibrium exchange rate level for the economy with large external debt, subdued real income growth, fragile financial sector and repeated problems with current account deficit. The main idea of the paper is to apply one of the newly...