We analyze and quantify the determinants of asymmetric shocks showing up in the form of medium-term real exchange rate (RER) changes. First, we discuss sources of asymmetric shocks causing exchange rate variability and the role of the RER as a shock generator. Second, we use data for 21 advanced...

This paper examines the usefulness of Google Trends data for forecasting mortgage lending in the Czech Republic. While the official monthly statistics on mortgage lending come with a publication lag of one month, the data on how often people search for mortgage-related terms on the internet are...

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the modelling of the cross-sectional dimension of systemic risk. First, the network of financial linkages in the Czech economy is mapped and then a model of inter-sector transmission of financial contagion is presented. The model is used to...

The crisis has brought the issue of regulating large, complex and highly interconnected financial institutions back into the spotlight. Supervisory and other competent authorities have discovered that they have only limited ways of preventing an idiosyncratic shock in one institution from...

This paper focuses on the forecasting process at the Czech National Bank with an emphasis on incorporating expert judgments into forecasts and addressing data uncertainty. At the beginning, the core model and the forecasting process are described and it is presented how data and the underlying...

The project is focused on top-down stress testing of the Czech insurance sector. The aim of the present paper is to describe the advanced method for macro stress testing of insurance companies used by the CNB. We apply the presented stress test to eleven Czech insurance companies. The shocks...

Regulators in many countries are currently considering ways to impose domestic systemic importance-based capital requirements on banks. Aiming to assist these considerations, this article discusses a number of issues concerning the calculation of a bank's systemic importance to the domestic...

This paper concentrates on describing the available empirical findings on monetary policy transmission in the Czech Republic. Besides the overall impact of monetary policy on inflation and output, it is useful to study its individual channels, in particular the interest rate channel, the...

This paper focuses on the way the macroprudential policy framework in a small EU economy should be designed. With reference to the experience of the Czech Republic's financial system and the Czech National Bank it provides definitions of financial stability and macroprudential policy as well as...