A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state-space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component, a...

The ex post analysis of inflation target fulfilment plays an important role in an inflation targeting framework. The major benefits of ex post analysis are threefold. First, it might improve the forecast accuracy. Second, it helps central bank staff and board members to understand the...

The paper considers the empirical dimension of financial integration among stock markets in four new European Union member states (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) in comparison with the euro area. The main objective is to test for the existence and determine the degree of the...

In this paper we show the relevance of the degree of competition for inferences about changes in export-production relative prices when the nominal exchange rate changes. We devise a model for tradable goods that combines the market competition and the pricing-tomarket literature and we...

The paper proposes a continuous time model of an FX market organized as a multiple dealership. The model reflects a number of salient features of the Czech koruna spot market. The dealers have costly access to the best available quotes. They interpret signals from the joint dealer-customer order...

The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money...

The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring “high-inflation†EU countries into line with “low-inflation†countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the European Central Bank. While the...

The use of estimated policy rules has been on the rise over the past few decades as central banks have increasingly relied on them as policy benchmarks. While simple, conventionally estimated rules have proven insightful, their value is generally seen to depend, among other things, on the...

We investigate the fiscal implications of the changes in personal income tax implemented in the Czech Republic in January 2006. In addition to evaluating the direct effect of this tax reform, our analysis takes into account its employment effect on the government budget due to individuals...