We estimate the impulse response of key US macro series to the monetary policy shocks identified by Romer and Romer (2004), allowing the response to depend flexibly on the state of the business cycle. We find strong evidence that the effects of monetary policy on real and nominal variables are...

A large literature has documented statistically significant effects of monetary policy on economic activity. The central explanation for how monetary policy transmits to the real economy relies critically on nominal rigidities, which form the basis of the New Keynesian (NK) framework. This paper...

Economies at early stages of development are frequently shaken by large changes in growth rates, whereas advanced economies tend to experience relatively stable growth rates. To explain this pattern, we propose a model of technological diversification. Production makes use of input-varieties...

Every year during the second and third quarters (the "hot season") housing markets in the U.K. and the U.S. experience systematic above-trend increases in both prices and transactions. During the fourth and first quarters (the "cold season"), housing prices and transactions fall below trend. A...

Every year housing markets in the United Kingdom and the United States experience systematic above-trend increases in both prices and transactions during the second and third quarters (the "hot season") and below-trend falls during the fourth and first quarters (the "cold season"). House price...

A vast empirical literature has documented delayed and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on output. We show that this finding results from the aggregation of output impulse responses that differ sharply depending on the timing of the shock: When the monetary policy shock takes place...

Joao Santos Silva and Silvana Tenreyro investigate whether the new currency has delivered the promised growth in trade between member countries

The difference in the price you pay for the same house in the summer and in the winter is huge, according to Rachel Ngai and Silvana Tenreyro.

Shifts in the extent of competition, which affect markup ratios, are possible sources of aggregate business fluctuations. markups are countercyclical, and booms are times at which the economy operates more efficiently. We begin with a real model in which markup ratios correspond to the prices of...

Shifts in the extent of competition, which affect markup ratios, are possible sources of aggregate business fluctuations. Markups are countercyclical, and booms are times at which the economy operates more efficiently. We begin with a real model in which markup ratios correspond to the prices of...