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to have dealt with the volatility better. Why? This paper explores Australian terms of trade volatility since 1901. It … identifies two major price shock episodes before the recent mining-led boom and bust. It assesses their relative magnitude, their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463954
We use more than one century of Argentine and Mexican data to estimate the structural parameters of a small-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job at explaining business cycles in emerging countries. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466032
evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically … account for the increased volatility of oil price we observe in these periods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160159
activity. However, using U.S. data since 1950 we show that the macroeconomic response pattern to stock market volatility shocks … decomposition for consumption growth shows that the contribution of stock market volatility becomes negligible as we go from earlier … of stock market volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117909
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012878891
estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the volatility of the shock to US real GDP leads to a decline in UK GDP …This paper proposes an empirical model which can be used to estimate the impact of changes in the volatility of shocks … to US real activity on the UK economy. The proposed empirical model is a structural VAR where the volatility of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099667
This paper presents new empirical evidencesuggesting that the net effect of trade openness on output volatility is … as instrumental variables. The results confirm that exposure to trade raises output volatility through the terms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126185
sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than previous findings for the US indicate. We further …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126869
the jump intensity is much more important than diffusive volatility risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128546