Support for economic reforms has often shown puzzling dynamics: many reforms that began successfully lost public support. This paper shows that learning dynamics can rationalize this paradox because the process of revealing reform outcomes is an example of sampling without replacement. This...

This paper analyzes secessions through the lens of representative democratic institutions and considers the incentives of partisan political parties to support independence movements.  It points out that, if anything, separatists should expect to receive support from exactly the "unlike-minded"...

This paper presents a model of a rational seller who is actively learning the slope of his demand curve via his pricing strategy.  Consequently, this seller optimally experiments with his price.  Resulting price patterns show a lot of discreteness (as observed in the data), which has proved to...

In an environment where voters face an inference problem on the competence level of policy makers, this paper shows how subjecting these policy makers to reelection can reduce the degree of policy experimentation to the benefit of the status quo.  This may be a reason why some notable policy...

As both the natural level of output and the New Keynesian output gap cannot be observed in practice, there is quite some debate on the question how these variables look like in practice. Rather than taking the standard approach of using a time trend or the HP-filter to obtain estimates of these...

This paper first documents the increase in the time lag with which labor input reacts to output fluctuations ("the labor adjustment lag") that is visible in US data since the mid-1980s. We show that a lagged labor adjustment response is optimal in a setting where there is uncertainty about the...

Traditional ways of analyzing the effects of monetary policy shocks via structural vector autoregressions require the use of unrealistic identifying assumptions: they either do not allow for a response of output and prices on impact of the shock, or they exclude contemporaneous values of these...

Recent research has shown that the standard labor market matching model fails to match the dynamics of US data. In particular, the model lacks sufficient propagation of shocks. This paper shows that refining the informational structure of the model leads to significant improvements along this...

This paper first documents the increase in the lag with which US labour input reacts to macroeconomic fluctuations since the 1980s. We show that lagged labour adjustment is optimal when there is uncertainty about the persistence of shocks and labour input is costly to adjust. We then present...

Climate skeptics typically argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous, implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing emissions until we know what drives warming. This paper however shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such...