Identifying monetary policy shocks is difficult. Therefore, instead of trying to do this perfectly, this paper exploits a natural setting that reduces the consequences of shock misidentification. It does so by basing conclusions upon the responses of variables in three dollarized countries...

This paper investigates the institutional set-up of European banking supervision against the backdrop of the current structure of the European banking market. Point of departure is that, in order to avoid incentive problems and white spots, the institutional structure of supervision should...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in <A href="http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/08/25/wber.lhu005.abstract?sid=a3f17f9e-0c3c-403b-87cc-14b5eebc2752">'The World Bank Economic Review'</A>, forthcoming.<P> Support for economic reforms has often shown puzzling dynamics: there are many examples of reforms that started off successfully but nevertheless lost public support, and vice versa. We show that...</p></a>

This paper analyzes how political accountability affects the incentives of policy makers to learn through experimentation with new policies. It shows that when voters face an inference problem on the competence level of policy makers, reelection concerns reduce experimentation incentives to the...

Climate skeptics argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions until we know more. However this paper shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a change of...

Support for economic reforms has often shown puzzling dynamics: many reforms that began successfully lost public support. This paper shows that learning dynamics can rationalize this paradox because the process of revealing reform outcomes is an example of sampling without replacement. This...

Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or doesover-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscalproblems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countrieswhere past growth...

This paper solves the two-armed bandit problem when decision makersare risk averse. It shows, counterintuitively, that a more risk-averse decisionmaker might be more willing to take risky actions. The reason relates tothe fact that pulling the risky arm in bandit models produces informationon...

Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we document that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth...