prediction procedure is applied to a seven variable system with focus on forecasting the Swedish inflation. …

Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) that are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price … statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting … extreme trimmed-mean measure - the median CPI - improves the forecasts of both core and headline inflation (CPI and personal …

standard OLS VAR and Bayesian VAR models, in forecasting inflation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Although the presented models are … significant improvement in forecasting performance at all forecast horizons when Bayesian techniques, which incorporate … small and highly aggregated, they provide a convenient framework to illustrate practical forecast issues. Furthermore, they …

aggregated forecasts of their main components from large Bayesian VARs with a shared set of predictors. We focus on conditional … affected temporarily. Inflation forecasts made by Eurosystem/ECB staff perform similarly or slightly better than those from our …

outperform those of the QPM for the whole forecast horizon. For inflation they also outperform the official NBU forecasts over …In this paper, I examine the forecasting performance of a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with steady … period 2016q1-2020q1. My findings suggest that inflation forecasts produced by the BVAR model are more accurate than those of …