We investigate the relevance of the Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the...

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model ofMankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in...

A couple of recent papers have shifted the focus towards disagreement of professional forecasters. When dealing with survey data that is sampled at a frequency higher than annual and that includes only fixed event forecasts, e.g. expectation of average annual growth rates measures of...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...

Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on the state of the business cycle. Our results indicate that the general result that forecasters systematically overestimate output growth (across all countries)...

To assess the performance of multivariate density forecasts for the world economy based on a Bayesian global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, we decompose the predictive joint density into its marginals and a copula term that captures the dependence structure among variables and countries....

[Einleitung. Radiation Management als klimapolitische Option?] Naturwissenschaftliche Messungen bestätigen mittlerweile eindeutig eine weltweite Veränderung des Klimas, als dessen wesentliche Ursache die anthropogene Freisetzung von Kohlendioxid (CO2) gilt. Anstrengungen, diese CO2-Emissionen...

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development that includes a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) with 169 specific targets could be a step forward in achieving efficient governance and policies for global sustainable development. An essential element will be the global indicator...

This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters of the Euro area economy and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation formation. Disagreement varies over time and is strongly counter-cyclical. Disagreement is positively correlated with...

We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.