Systems thinking (ST) is a powerful way of thinking that is being revitalized in several economic fields in order to discover new answers to current challenges and to support a deeper understanding of business. As part of this revitalization, it makes sense to apply systems thinking to business...

It has been recently documented that survey-based point predictions outperform even the most successful forecasting models. However, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as being heavily distorted. Forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex-ante variances often produce...