model. In addition, it helps predicting inflation in pseudo real-time and exhibits limited variations when new data become … data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages, investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the estimated output gap …

and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy institutions, they find that real-time … favorable real-time properties, but leads to a more even coverage of typical business cycle frequencies. Based on output growth …

We propose a simple modification of the time series filter by Hamilton (2018b) that yields reliable and economically … meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8-quarter ahead forecasts errors of an autoregression … favorable real-time properties of the Hamilton filter, but leads to a much better coverage of typical business cycle frequencies …

We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically … meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple … potential GDP. A simple modification based on the mean of 4 to 12 quarter ahead forecast errors shares the favorable real-time …