In this paper, we analyze the dynamic of inflation in Venezuela, in the last eighteen years, through a Markov-switching estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips curve. Estimation is carried out using the EM algorithm. The model’s estimates distinguish between a “normal or backward looking”...

This paper seeks to understand the changing relationship between the Venezuelan government and PDVSA (the state oil industry) regarding the national oil policy design and formulation. Using a political economy narrative, the analysis is based on the construction of several qualitative indicators...

En este trabajo se analiza el riesgo crediticio de la economía venezolana con base en el enfoque de pasivos contingentes (contingent claim analysis). Esta metodología se orienta a la obtención de indicadores que cuantifican el riesgo de insolvencia de los principales sectores macroeconómicos...

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the short run effects of monetary policy actions during the period April 2002 – January 2004. Narrative indicators are used to characterize monetary policy actions, since they reflect the intentionality of decisions from the information contained in...

How have external shocks affected the LA region? To what extent such shocks relate to US domestic conditions? Has the region engaged in procyclical or countercyclical monetary and fiscal policy in response to external shocks? In this paper we address these questions through an empirical exercise...

Which structural macroeconomic shocks have typified rising house prices? What ultimate factors have compromised financial stability and risk? These questions are answered for the Venezuelan economy by estimating a FAVAR model with macroeconomic, banking and asset price variables. We find that...

Uncertainty has broad impacts on the economy, but it is unclear whether it affects only aggregate demand or both sides of the market. Using available uncertainty measures, this paper aims to quantify the impact of uncertainty shocks on output growth and inflation through their effects on...

This paper evaluates whether fiscal and foreign exchange policy shocks can explain both credit and credit supply in Venezuela. Empirical evidence suggests that between 65 and 90 percent of credit growth is linked to the buildup of banks' deposits caused by the monetary effects of fiscal...

Which structural macroeconomic shocks have typified rising house prices? What ultimate factors have compromised financial stability and risk? These questions are answered for the Venezuelan economy by estimating a FAVAR model with macroeconomic, banking and asset price variables. We find that...

How have external shocks affected the LA region? To what extent such shocks relate to US domestic conditions? Has the region engaged in procyclical or countercyclical monetary and fiscal policy in response to external shocks? In this paper we address these questions through an empirical exercise...