We investigate the optimal policy response to the possibility of abrupt, irreversible shifts in system dynamics. The welfare cost of a tipping point emerges from the policymaker's response to altered system dynamics. Our policymaker also learns about a threshold's location by observing the...

The prevailing literature discusses intergenerational trade-offs predominantly in infinitely-lived agent models despite the finite lifetime of individuals. We discuss these trade-offs in a continuous time OLG framework and relate the results to the infinitely-lived agent setting. We identify...

Global warming, alterations of ecosystems, and sunk investments all imply irreversible changes with uncertain future costs and benefits. The Arrow-Fisher-Hanemann-Henry quasi-option value and the Dixit-Pindyck option value both measure how irreversibility and uncertainty change the value of...

We introduce a version of the DICE-2007 model designed for uncertainty analysis. DICE is a wide-spread deterministic integrated assessment model of climate change. Climate change, long-term economic development, and their interactions are highly uncertain. The quantitative analysis of optimal...

The paper analyzes the discount rate under uncertainty. The analysis complements the probabilistic characterization of uncertainty by a measure of confidence. Special cases of the model comprise discounting under smooth ambiguity aversion as well as discounting under a disentanglement of risk...

Over the last few decades, integrated assessment models (IAM) have provided insight into the relationship between climate change, economy, and climate policies. The limitations of these models in capturing uncertainty in climate parameters, heterogeneity in damages and policies, have given rise...

“Prices versus quantities” (Weitzman 1974), a hugely influential paper, is widely cited (and taught) in current debates about the best policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The paper’s criterion for ranking policies suggests that technological uncertainty favors taxes over cap and...

The paper analyzes optimal climate policy under uncertainty. It endows a recent quantitative analytic integrated assessment model (IAM) with long-run risk, adapting methods from the asset pricing literature to deal with endogenous climate risk. The model solves in closed-form for general degrees...

We introduce a “smart” cap and trade system that eliminates the welfare costs of asymmetric information (“uncertainty”). This cap responds endogenously to technology or macroeconomic shocks, relying on the market price of certificates to aggregate information. It allows policy makers to...