is a strong predictor of economic surprises, suggesting that forecasters behave strategically (rational bias) and possess … private information. Our results also show that consensus forecasts of US macroeconomic releases embed anchoring. Under these … strongly depend on economic releases being inflation- or growth-related. Yet, when forecasters fail to correctly forecast the …

relationship between a change in trend growth rates and forecast bias, as suggested in the literature, breaks down when only …-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for …

strategically and possess private information. The prevalence of this rational bias depends on the attention given to the economic …- or growth-related. The forecasters' rational bias in US macroeconomic forecasts is also exhibited in individual …