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of risk premia if and only if volatility is stochastic. Our model can thus justify the recent empirical results on the … term structure of risk premia if the pricing of volatility risk is downward sloping (in absolute value) in the data and if … downward-sloping term structures of returns on a given market are driven solely by exposures to volatility risk. We test these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010439624
-varying consumption volatility risk is essential for obtaining the inversion of the real curve and allows to price the average level and …We propose a consumption-based model that allows for an inverted term structure of real and nominal risk-free rates. In … our framework the agent is subject to time-varying macroeconomic risk and interest rates at all maturities depend on her …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921898
-varying consumption volatility risk is essential in order to obtain the inversion of the real curve and allows the average level and the …We propose a consumption-based model that allows for an inverted term structure of real and nominal risk-free rates. In … our framework the agent is subject to time-varying macroeconomic risk, and interest rates at all maturities depend on her …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921959
This paper characterizes time variation in the link between macroeconomic risk and variation in the yield curve. Based … macroeconomic shares of yield curve volatility over a fixed sample …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314107
, such as the market excess return, size, book-to-market, momentum, liquidity, market volatility, and the variance risk … VIX slope risk is approximately 2.5% annually, statistically significant and cannot be explained by other common factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044719
-varying volatility for stock returns, even when volatility of economic fundamental is constant. As a source of risk, for investors with … intuition, we show that information uncertainty as a systematic risk factor is able to explain variance premium term structure …In this paper, we explore the relation between information uncertainty and S&P 500 index option returns. Since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024745
-based ex-post measures of macroeconomic risk. Inflation uncertainty is an important driver of bond premia, but the relation …This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441139
We propose a method to extract individual firms' risk-neutral return distributions by combining options and credit …. Jointly, options and CDS span the intermediate part of the distribution, which is driven by moderate-sized jump risk. We study … the returns on a trading strategy that buys (sells) stocks exposed to positive (negative) moderate-sized jump risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011779565
I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … expectations of real economic activity, uncertainty about real GDP growth, and downside and upside risks in housing starts and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516
This article develops an empirical methodology to determine which economic shocks span risk in asset returns and … identifies economic shocks. The choice of identifying restrictions is based on the properties of the term structure of risk in … multiple sources of risk in the variance of consumption growth. Both types of news are almost equally important for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896455