The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of macroeconomic conditions and predict the base performance of a firm as represented by Return on Asset (ROA) and macroeconomic variables. The predictor variables used in the construction of the models were selected using PCA. For the full...

We develop a data-rich measure of expected macroeconomic skewness in the US economy. Expected macroeconomic skewness is strongly procyclical, mainly reflects the cyclicality in the skewness of real variables, is highly correlated with the cross-sectional skewness of firm-level employment growth,...

Structural vector-autoregressive models are potentially very useful tools for guiding both macro- and microeconomic policy. In this paper, we present a recently developed method for exploiting non-Gaussianity in the data for estimating such models, with the aim of capturing the causal structure...