Technical analysis, also known as "charting", has been a part of financial practice for many decades, yet little academic research has been devoted to a systematic evaluation of this discipline. One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis---the presence of...

This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict...

This paper develops a tractable, dynamic, no-arbitrage model for the pricing of bonds and stocks that are subject to default risk. The model produces the bond pricing equations of the Duffie and Singleton (1999) framework. It is then shown that a particular choice of dividend process,...

We propose a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices and trading volume with heterogeneous agents facing fixed transactions costs. We show that even small fixed costs can give rise to large 'no-trade' regions for each agent's optimal trading policy and a significant illiquidity discount in...

This paper examines the related questions, of the time-series behavior of expected returns and of return predictability, within the framework of the stock-bond pricing model proposed in Mamaysky (2002). The key advantage of the model-based approach adopted in this paper is that the quantities of...

We propose a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices and trading volume with heterogeneous agents fixed transactions costs. We show that even small fixed costs can give rise to large "no-trade" regions for each agent's optimal trading policy and a significant illiquidity discount in asset...