spread on the Chinese economy. This paper provides a different leading recession indicator using the Chinese and US economy …

significantly improve the precision of recession predictions, especially at horizons further out than one year. …

negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are … well. We show that such model-implied recession probabilities strongly improve equity premium prediction out-of-sample. We …

funds rate, to produce conditional forecasts. During the Great Recession besides interest rate policy that increases term …

in the probability of a future recession within the next year. In contrast, a decrease in risk premia is associated with … either a higher or lower recession probability, depending on the source of the decline. In recent years, a decrease in the … inflation risk premium slope has been accompanied by a heightened risk of recession, while a lower real-rate risk premium slope …

used to construct a Hidden Markov Model for real-time recession probability. Furthermore, a Random Forest model is … developed to forecast recession up to 24 months ahead. And we show recession forecast is closely associated with yield spread …

in regressions of U.S. recession risk and U.S. real GDP growth. Like the U.S. term spread, U.S. recession risk rises and ….S. yield curve coinciding with flatter yield curves abroad indicates greater U.S. recession risk than a flatter U.S. yield …

indicator than the spreads in studying the term structure. Key words: Business cycle, recession forecast, U.S. Treasury yield …

recession risks. We run a horse race between the term spread - the most widely used indicator in the literature - and a range of … specifications. These results are robust to different recession specifications …

provides superior results during the Great Recession. Broader monetary aggregates provide no superior information for output …