Showing 1 - 10 of 907,190
Using an agent-based model (ABM) with fundamentalists and chartists, prone to develop bubbles and crashes, we … demonstrate the usefulness of direct market intervention by a policy maker, documenting strong performance in preventing bubbles … bubbles by forming an expectation of the future return of the risky asset in the form of an exponential moving average of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271219
business cycles and stock price bubbles. We show that market sentiments exert important influence on the macroeconomy. They …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009304074
This paper studies whether and how the central bank should prick asset price bubbles, if the effect of interest rate … policy on bubbles can significantly vary across periods. For this purpose, I first construct a financial accelerator model … with an agent-based financial market that can endogenously generate bubbles and account for their impact on the real sector …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012932004
is able to account for the development of endogenous bubbles and crashes. We distinguish three different regimes …’ opinions are idiosyncratic and no bubbles emerge. Around the critical value of the O(n) vector model, cross sectionally … asynchronous bubbles emerge. Above the critical value, small random price fluctuations may be amplified by noise traders herding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799633
crash (and rally) discrete jump distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles. We assume that crashes tend …, which has been previously proposed as a general definition of bubbles. Our bubble model also allows for a sequence of small …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865575
(and rally) discrete jump distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles. The RE condition implies that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899594
Galvanized by the claims of Greenwood et al. in Bubbles for Fama that “a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio …, people have not come up with ways of identifying bubbles”, we present significant evidence to the contrary of both statements … price growth qualified by LPPLS: (i) bubbles followed by a large drawdown or crash, and (ii) price catch-up followed by a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800716
” or “bearish” market phases, thus forming bubbles and anti-bubbles, respectively. We briefly review the theory behind this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014192584
Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon - instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). I use the cointegrating relationship between the log S&P Composite Index and log earnings over 1871 to 2015, combined with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011777936
Building on the notion that bubbles are transient self-fulfilling prophecies created by positive feedback mechanisms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619422